Demand Management and Forecasting
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Demand Management and Forecasting Course
Introduction:
Demand management and forecasting play a crucial role in any organization as they determine the demand for products or services. Effective demand planning is necessary to ensure timely availability of products without excessive inventory.
Demand planners face challenges due to market uncertainties. Achieving accurate demand planning and forecasting requires a combination of forecasting science and informed judgment regarding internal and external factors. This task is not without its difficulties.
Managing demand involves controlling an organization's capacity, be it in terms of resources, inventory, or human resources. Demand management is essential for cost-effectiveness, cost-focused operations, and achieving lean operations within the organization.
Demand Management and Forecasting training Course covers the fundamentals of demand management and planning, including roles/responsibilities and accountabilities, definitions, process flows, levels, timing and horizons, technologies, and mechanics.
Course Objectives:
At the end of the Demand Management and Forecasting training course , you'll be able to:
- Develop a forecast and manage demand
- Manage forecast performance
- Develop and refine methods and processes to link forecasting to the growth of revenue
- Master the skill to “sell” demand planning to your organization through higher inventory turns and higher customer service
- Leverage on the value of internal and external collaboration that leads to more accurate forecasts
- Enhance your knowledge of statistical concepts that are fully applicable to all forecasting software packages and systems
- Develop their understanding of good practice demand planning and inventory management
- Learn and practice skills which can be used to evaluate effectiveness of their own organization’s approaches to these crucial areas
- Enhance knowledge which will help explain the value-adding role of the function to key stakeholders
- Develop an Action Plan towards improved demand planning and inventory management
- Be better able to share good practice with others
Who Should Attend?
Demand Management and Forecasting Training course, is ideal for:
- Those involved in planning the use, movement or purchase of materials, work in progress or finished goods
- Inventory managers, inventory planners, expeditors
- Warehousing and distribution personnel who respond to demand, inventory and replenishment decisions made by others
- Key staff from other functions seeking to gain and appreciation of the role and processes of the demand planning and inventory management functions
Course Outlines:
Keys to successful forecasting process and function
- Problems and Needs
- Goals and Objectives
- Coordination and Leadership
- Process Management
- Forecast Model Development
- Communication with Participants and Users
- Four Forecasting Process Approaches
- Independent
- Concentrated
- Consensus
- One Number
- Myths About Forecasting
- Silo Forecasting Impact on Organization
Data patterns and demand variability
- The Bullwhip Effect
- Demand Variability and the Methods to Minimize It
- Recognition of Data Patterns
- What kind of problems to look for in the data and how to treat them
Inputs and outputs of demand plan
- Profit Potential
- Risk Management Input
- Operations Planning
Forecasting models: Qualitative / Quantitative
- How much data to use for different statistical models
- Subjective assessment models overview
Time series models
- Inherent assumptions
- When time series work and when they don’t
- Time series elements: Level, Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality, Noise
Cause and effect models
- Regression models
- When to use regression models
- Steps in development
- Key assumptions
Minimizing forecasting error
- Forecast error metrics
- Uses of forecast error measures
- Sources of error
- Error analysis, communication and remediation
- Exception driven forecasting process
- Relationship between MAPE / Bias, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs
New product forecasting
- New product success and error rates
- New product success and failure factors
- Issues to consider when developing new product forecasts
- Qualitative and Quantitative methods used in new product forecasting
Promotions forecast
- Promotions forecast error rates
- Manage the process for unplanned and abnormal demand
- Factors, issues, and considerations in developing promotions forecasts
- Cannibalization impact of promotions on base / open stock SKUs
Worst forecast practices summary and discussion